Iran, in spite of what we have been told, has had a history of the most free and open elections in the middle east and the Iranian people have been very participative. It has some strange election laws which allow almost anyone to run for the office of President. This election had almost 500 candidates.
The biggest fear in Iran is that it will become more like Egypt or Pakistan, where the military controls the apparatus of government. This is the real danger that Iran faces now. The election farce was controlled by a military group called the Pasdaran, which has as its public face, the Revolutionary Guard. In effect, the rigged election was a military coup d'etat controlled by Ayatollah Ali Kahmeni. The puppet they want to install as the figure head is of course, Ahmadinejad.
It is almost natural for the military to come more into the forefront of Iran's government because of the state of constant threat from America and Israel. In a sense, the west has enabled the Hard line military Pasdaran to rise to power by creating the sense of threat, much the same way that the sense of threat from the Islamic fundamentalists had empowered the Neo Cons in America after 9/11. It didn't help that the United States had a presidential candidate whose foreign policy boiled down to singing "Bomb, bomb, bomb, Bomb Iran". Perhaps the biggest mistake that America could make now is two fold. Ahmadinejad must not be acknowleged as the winner. Obama cannot congratualte him and at the same time, he can't be seen as trying to manipulate the situation. That would most certainly tip the scales for the Pasdaran.
There is a lot of differing information out there, but the most repeated line is that Ahmadinejad came in third in the real vote. One estimate had Mousavi recieving almost 3 times the votes! This, though seems to be a real exageration.
The military coup, though needs internal support for it to be effective and many reports give the protestors a lot of support from inside the military from non Pasdaran, non fanatic soldiers. The military junta has yet to actually have support from the civilian police.
An interesting fact about Shiite custom is the mourning traditions. Some one who dies for a cause is considered a martyr and holy. There is a strict ritual of mourning that takes place at specific times up to 3 months after the death. Today was a day of mourning for the first victims of the protests. There was a mourning protest, actually a religious ceremony attended by almost 1,000,000 people.
The mourning observations and the attempt to suppress them were the fuel that started the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The Iranian revolution was a peoples revolution and it brought down the Shahs military machine. The present attempt at forming a junta can only succeed in Iran if it has the support of the population and at this point in time, that is something it will never have.
Rather quickly, the internet is responding with support for the Iranian people. The organization, Pirates Bay, the really cheap download site has given its support and technical aid to the group called Anonymous and they have launched the Anonymous Iran web site.
Anonymous is a collective anarchist non group. They are the internet, so to speak. You might have heard of them before because they have taken on the behemoth of Scientology. That is a big plus for them in my book, in fact, here is their anti Scientology video, in case you haven't seen it:
3 comments:
Good stuff, I mean, good words, the actual world developments are probably not so good, though maybe we shouldn't be held to binary views.
Awesome commentary!
Well said, Microdot. I penned a lengthy post about the efforts of Anonymous to f**k with the mullahs, but Blogger ate it on Friday as I typed, and I was too pissed to rewrite it.
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