Thursday, February 15, 2007

What Is Vlad Up To?

Today, I read the news about Russia claining that they might have to pull out of the !987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty negotiated with the old Soviet Union between Reagan and Gorbachev. They based this on the future action of the US in regards to the missle defense system it proposes to deploy in bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. This treaty eliminated an entire class of medium range missles that had been based in Europe. Vladimir Putin said that the treaty was no longer in Russias' interests.
At the same time, Russia sells arms to Iran. It's in Russias interests to bolster Irans ability to defend itself and is a deterrent to the current American adventuristic impulses. They don't want a conflict that could "go nuclear" on it's doorstep!
Russia has also concluded arms deals with Venezuela and a number of South American Countries and is in the midst of inking a deal to assist Saudi Arabia start a nuclear energy program.
This all is in direct conflict with what the Bush Government percieves as its sphere of influence and interests.
One thing Russia is doing is countering the influence of American power all over the world and asserting itself, but I think Vlad has another goal in mind. A long term goal that might not be so difficult to achieve as you might think. It could be Vlads Revenge!
America is stretched so thin and is on the verge of stretching itself thinner and the cost of it's undefined and unlimited eternal war on terror is draining our resources exponentially. How far can can the theoretical limits of budget deficits be stretched? The Soviet Union found out when it tried to counter the United States in the Cold War. The collapse was caused by military overspending and strategic moves that continually drained its resources. It tried to out spend the US in a Nuclear Arms race. It failed...I think Vlad knows that we can fail too and we might be a lot closer to this line than you might think.....What do you think?


Village Green said...

I think Vlad is no fool, whereas the US is ruled by one. It has all the ingredients of a thrilling miniseries: The Decline and Fall of a Super Power. No longer "super" -- rather all in a stupor.

historymike said...

I think Putin recognizes an opportunity to squeeze the US for trade deals and/or more economic assistance.

It's not really in Russia's strategic interest to renege on the treaty; I think this is just taking advantage of the unfavorable US position, thanks to George W. Bush and his idiotic foreign policy.