Only 2 days left until the first tour of the election. Out of 12 candidates, 2 will be chosen, or if there is an unprecedented and unexpected miracle, one candidate will get enough of a majority to win on the first. Don't count on it.
This has been a dizzying week in polls. We have seen Segolene rise to the point where tonight in some polls, she is ahead of Sarkozy. In every poll, for the second tour, Segolene and Nikolas are neck and neck, virtually 50/50%!
We have seen Bayrou go up and down. Last night he had a major rally and filled Bercy in Paris with his supporters. He has made a major appeal to the mainstream Muslim Community and just on PR value alone, he may get a large percentage of the older Muslim vote. He still is polling at 17%. Le Pen is around 10%, his numbers go up and down, but as many people are not comfortable talking about him, you never know until the votes are counted. He has launched a major attack against Sarkozy, ridiculing him because he is the son of a Hungarian Immigrant and Sephardic Jewish family and has made anti immigration part of his platform, which is LePens traditional strong point.
Sarkozy was also hit hard by the press he doesn't control. Over the week end, the centrist political journal, Marianne published an expose of his past record, his many initiatives that have failed, his business connections, his psychological problems and the real program he is going to try to rule France with. Liberation followed suit yesterday with a further investigative piece, Today, the gossip is that his wife, Celia has left him 5 weeks ago claiming conjugal violence. He has seemed a bit more unhinged than usual lately.
Tonight, Segolene had a monster rally in Toulouse with Spanish President Zapatero appearing to give her his full support. So far she is the only candidate to get the support from other European leaders. She met with Angela Merkel earlier this month and they held a long far ranging discussion and supposedly are good friends.
Supposedly, Sarkozy has gotten covert aid from the US Government and has said that sometimes he feels more American than French.
I think everyone is a little nervous about the outcome. The little candidates are all holding under 5% chunks of the polls with Besancenot in the lead and DeVilliers at less that 1%. Jose Bove has made his candidacy a platform to attack Sarkozy and promote understanding in the Banlieus. He seems to be really comfortable in the banlieus with out a body guard, just a little video crew hanging out and talking to the people. He got "pied" live on television last week and instead of getting angry, he seemed tyo enjoy the joke good naturedly and no one was arrested. If that had happened to Sarkozy, the perp would probably have been shot by his body guards. His slogan is Osez Bove! Which translates to Dare to Bove!
Besancenot had the best TV spot so far for his ad. He hardly spoke at all, he was just in crowds of people of all kinds, relaxed and let them do the talking for him. All he had to do was agree. For a fire breathing Troskyite revolutionary, he is one heck of a nice guy! Tomorrow will see a major last minute push by the Socialists who have been saving their media time for this.
More than that, I cannot say. It probably will end up Sarkozy/Royal. It could be really crazy and Sarko could end up as Jospin in the last election...the bitter taste of victory turning into acid as he watches the real numbers...then it could be Bayrou/Segolene or LePen/Segolene, or if worse comes to worse, Sarko/LePen...
I know if it was Sarko/LePen, many in the cities would vote LePen just to light the fuse to blow the social situattion sky high.
If Sarkozy is elected, trouble will start the night of the election.
I hope that France has had the chance to look over the edge and see into the abyss and step back and choose another future with Segolene Royal!